$15 Minimum Wage In Quebec? A Major Issue For Depanneurs In The Upcoming 2018 Elections

On January 1, Ontario’s minimum wage will rise from $ 11.60 to $ 14.00, a staggering 21% increase. Then, a year later, it will climb to $ 15, a second increase of 7%.

In other words, in just one year, it will be raised by almost 30%! Unbelievable but true: a 30% increase in one year, while inflation usually gets between 1 and 2%!

What is going on in the neighboring province of Ontario obviously has an impact here in Quebec. Many voices will demand that Quebec follow suit. The Ontario precedent gives them more weight and credibility.

In addition, 2018 will be an election year in Quebec during which the ruling Liberal, after almost 15 years in power, can take nothing for granted. The minimum wage is therefore likely to become a major electoral issue, even maybe a key one to win power.

The question is WHEN

It is not a matter of being for or against it – sooner or later, it will happen – but to determine WHEN the $ 15 minimum wage will be implemented.

Should we simply follow the trend of the last 10 years, it would not be until 2026 – nine years from now – that we would see a $15 minimum wage in Québec.

As seen in the table above, the minimum wage has been increased on average three times faster than inflation since 2007, having grown by 40.6% in 10 years. The Liberal government has said it wants to increase it by about 3.4% by 2020, but may change its mind depending on the state of the economy. By sticking to this pace, the minimum wage at $ 15 wouldn’t come to light before 2026.

However, the Ontario minimum wage shocking increase to $ 14 next January, then to $ 15 in January 2019, are a game-changer: for the first time, there will be a significant difference between the minimum wages of the two neighboring provinces, Ontario and Quebec.

Since 2007, the minimum wage gap between Quebec and Ontario has never exceeded 8.7% in favor of Ontario, i.e. in 2014 ($ 11.25 in Ontario vs. $ 10.35 in Québec). However, this gap will jump to 19.15% in 2018 and 24% in 2019, something never witnessed so far! All sorts of adverse effects can thus emerge, such as a greater scarcity of low skilled manpower in the Outaouais region, an area located in Québec and bordering the province of Ontario.
The current parties’ positions cover the whole range of possibilities

The minimum wage issue has all the ingredients to become a major election issue in 2018:

  • It affects lots of people: 350,600 are currently receiving a minimum wage pay in Quebec;
  • It is backed by a large support movement, not only in Ontario but also in the United States (comprised of unions and left-wing groups);
  • It is a positioning issue for parties: since it divides them, it can be used to differentiate and to highlight each party’s values, agenda and priorities.

Now, what to expect from the various parties concerning the minimum wage? Although we need to look at each other’s electoral platforms in order to find out precisely, we can already anticipate their position according to the actions taken and statements made to date by their leader or their militant base.

Liberal Party of Quebec: Not Now

In power since 2014 (after a brief one-year stint in the opposition), the Liberal Party first showed openness in favor of a debate on this topic to finally change its mind and firmly settle the matter (see DepQuébec’s article about this here).

So much so that when it announced the minimum wage rate in 2017, the government also announced its intentions for the next increases up until 2020:

  • $ 0.50 in 2018 ($ 11.75);
  • $ 0.35 in 2019 ($ 12.10);
  • $ 0.35 in 2020 ($ 12.45).

According to Dominique Vien, Minister of Labor, the minimum wage increase announced in 2017 is a “balance between a fair pay for employees and the current employers’ capacity to afford the cost of its workforce”.

At this rate, as shown in the table above, the minimum wage would not reach $ 15 before the year 2026.

Coalition Avenir Québec: No Way

As for the party of Mr. François Legault, there is no appetite for the $ 15.

In an interview with Trois-Rivières’ daily Le Nouvelliste in August 2016 (see here), Mr. Legault came out as flatly against the idea of ​​such a drastic increase.

“My concern is that many young people who have access to jobs at $ 10, $ 11 or $ 12 an hour would see their jobs disappear. It’s taking the problem backwards. If in Quebec or Mauricie there were lots of jobs, employers would have to offer higher wages to attract workers. So the problem is not the minimum wage, the problem is the lack of quality jobs in Quebec,” said Mr. Legault.

Parti Québécois: After Much Hesitation, It’s A Go

The minimum wage issue is quite tricky for the Parti Québécois, a party known for being somewhat conservative when it comes to economic and public finance issues but also torn by strong leftist currents, especially now with the rise in popularity of Quebec Solidaire.

After initially expressing reluctance to raise the minimum wage to $ 15, fearing its impact on jobs, the party finally rallied last summer to a motion tabled at the National Assembly by Québec solidaire, which reads as follows:

“That the National Assembly recognize that, in 2016, only an hourly wage of $ 15 or more allows full-time employees to obtain a viable income. That the National Assembly undertake to adopt before the next elections a $ 15 minimum wage Act, which will establish the calendar for its annual increase. – Motion tabled by Québec Solidaire and supported by the PQ, May 19, 2016

This motion received the support of the 28 members of the Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire present in the National Assembly and was rejected by the 78 members of the Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec.

The Parti Quebecois has therefore clearly shown support for the $ 15 minimum wage, without specifying, however, over how many years it would take place. So the party is still a bit sitting on the fence but already, several of its members present this proposal as a given, as did for example the party’s President, Ms. Gabrielle Lemieux, who has recently set herself the goal of raising awareness of the party’s willingness to implement this measure (see article here).

PQ’s youngest National Assembly Member, Catherine Fournier, also said that the $ 15 minimum wage “is a measure we share with Québec Solidaire” (source: here).

It will be quite interesting to see how the PQ will reconcile this position with its desire to rally support from small businesses.

For Québec Solidaire: A Top Priority!

At Québec Solidaire, there is no need to read between the lines: they are strongly in favor of raising the minimum wage to $ 15 as soon as possible, no doubt about it.

In fact, at the start of the 2016 parliamentary session, the party was even making it a priority (see article here).

MNA Manon Massé has also asked for committee hearings on the issue so that they could, according to her, “deconstruct the fears of right wingers” in this regard.

This far-left party is currently working hard at presenting a softer, more reassuring side but has all but abandoned its radical socialist and anti-capitalistic agenda.

In their Unicorn world, the Solidaires advocate raising the minimum wage to thus “generate wealth” by giving back more to the poor.

In other words, since money simply grows on trees, just go get it and you’re done!

A 2018 vote … for or against the minimum wage

In conclusion, unless the CAQ or the Liberal Party gain power in the next 2018 elections, Quebec depanneurs should brace for a drastic increase of their manpower costs in 2019 that can easily represent $ 40,000 or more per year in additional operating expenses for a small convenience store having only one and a half employees at all times (see simulation here). For many, especially the most fragile, it will probably be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back and serial store closures could ensue.

Political parties are really good and capable at imposing cost increases with a smile and a pat on the back, but they are also absolutely clueless and useless when it comes to generating ideas or solutions for additional income.

One must wonder in which pocket convenience stores will find the needed additional income to cover for these new extraordinary cost increases… in any case, certainly not in Loto-Quebec’s or the SAQ’s (Quebec state-owned monopolies on lottery and alcohol).

That would make so much sense but… forget about it!

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